Why Value betting?


Today is the most effective way to beat a bookmaker. The essence of this method is: to create own odds more accurately than analysts of the bookmaker company. Of course, this method is not simple and requires the necessary skills:

  • probability theory
  • statistical modeling
  • programming
  • information about the sport you will model
  • math skills

 Example of a value bet


To determine the value bet, you need to determine your likelihood of an event occurring. The bookmaker sey the odd 1.8 at -0.5 Asian Handicap to A team. By your calculations on AH -0.5 is 60%. Here you can use the simple formula 1.8 x 0.6 = 1.08. If the final value is greater than 1, then this bet with edge over bookmaker’s line. You can also use other formulas to find your value bet.

The main thing in this method is to determine the probability more precisely than the bookmaker and only then we will be able to hope for a profit in the long run.

Value bet tips


  • In many articles the formula of this method is described, but it is not indicated that the basic guarantee of success in the accurate estimation of probability.
  • Without right bankroll management you will not succeed on a long distance. The value bet is good, but you still need to set a proportional amount for each of the bets.
  • You can find a value bet according to your likelihood. But does it mean that it is more accurate and will bring profit in the long run? To do this, you need to develop your statistical model for sports, comparing your chances with betting odds.
  • Now there are many services that give their value bets. Think carefully before you use them. Because these models are not backed up. And for profit in the long run, you need to make a large number of bets that will not be able to provide you dubious services.
  • Not every bet should be winning, but if you are moving on your model, then at the end you will be in the plus.


Football value bets


  • Use Poisson distribution to search for football betting odds
  • Football is the most popular betting sport. That allows you to place large amounts of rates on events. It’s good to make a turnaround and profit on a distance
  • On this site weekly placed value bets for football. Enter your bank size at input form and get what amount to put on each event. Remember that from these bets you will get profit at a distance, not immediately, so be patient.
  • Not all bets will win. On some segments of the built model, your bank can go into a significant minus. So be prepared to take defeat

Continuation of the topic in the article “Positive Expected Value in Sports Betting”


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