Bookmaker’s odds is the bookmaker’s analyst estimation of the probabilities for results of the corresponding match. In simple words, the odds is the probability for prediction the event. Let’s consider an example: an asian handicap on the first team -1@1.90 and a handicap on the second team +2.02. In the first case, the bookmaker estimates the chances of the team at 52.6%, and on the other: 49.5%. To convert the coefficient into percentages, use the following formula: (1 / odds) x 100.

The question arises that with the addition of two probabilities, 100% is not obtained, and 52.6% + 49.5% = 102.1%. So what do these 2.1% mean from above? This is called the bookmaker’s margin, the so-called commission of the bookmaker’s, they provide an opportunity to place bets on sports in them. These odds were taken from the bookmaker Pinnacle Sports, for the match Juventus – Lazio, but not before the closing line, but 2 days before the match. It is known that the top 5 European football leagues, including the Italian Serie A, are highly liquid markets and it is very difficult for them to find an advantage over the bookmaker, even over such as Pinnacle. Therefore, in this market, such a minimum margin of only 2.1%, for a match where many bets are placed. Demonstrate how it works in practice: you put -1@1.90 at Juventus $ 100, you get $ 190, $ 90 on top. I put +1@2.02 on Lazio $ 100, then I’ll get in case of winning this bet 202 $. In general, the bookmaker placed in his bet for $ 200. Match Juventus – Lazio ended 2-0. You bet on Juventus, got $ 190, I lost $ 100, and the bookmaker earned his $ 10 commission. From this it follows that the bookmaker needs to line up the match so that the bets are distributed proportionally between the two teams, the types of bets. When one factor is heavily “uploaded”, the bookmaker to store the proportionality of betting, reduces this odd and raises another odd, the other side of the line, in order to get it’s margin.

We considered the odds of the market leader from the Pinnacle Sports bookmaker, so there was such a low margin for the match. In other sportsbooks, this margin would be much higher and the odds for football are much lower. Professional bettors understand that to be at a distance in the black, you need beat the betting margin, and when it is less, the easier it is to make a profit in the long run. Check out the Poisson distribution to become a professional in sports betting and make football predictions more accurately than a bookie.


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