Why it’s possible to beat the bookie?
Many people, when make bets, add value to bookmaker odds only to calculate their potential gain winnings. If the players were understood in the theory of probability, then they would know that the odds can be convert in probability. For example: the odd 2.00 will be equal to 50%. To convert the odds to the probability you need: 1 / odd x 100.
When calculating it’s odds, bookmaker adds a margin to get a profit. Sets the odds so that regardless of how the event ends, get it’s commission. There is a chance to beat a bookmaker, because when it includes margin to the odds, they no longer reflect the real probability onset of the event.
Without understanding the probabilities you will not be able to beat the bookie. The bookmaker is trying to evaluate every event and set as much as possible odds. If his likelihood is very different from the real, then the bookmaker will be damaged. It is here that we have a chance to beat a bookmaker. The whole secret is to create your own odds more accurately than bookmaker does.
At the Internet you can see many different strategies, tips. Unfortunately, 95% of them don’t work and you will lose money.
How to beat the bookie?
You have only one opportunity – to develop your odds for every event. You don’t just have to determine your odds, but more than 50% of these bets were winning. To do this, you need to build a statistical model and test it. A good starting point is the Poisson distribution, which is used by many professional bettors. You must remember that you can beat a bookmaker only at a distance, make the appropriate turnover of the bets, the bankroll management and more than 50% of the winning bets.
Poisson distribution is suitable to beat the bookie’s football predictions.
For example, a bookmaker estimates the team’s win at odd 2.00. Your probability of winning the same team is 52%. That’s 2 x 0.52 = 1.04 – so you can put it, because 1.04 > 1. Then many ask themselves: “Is the value of 1.04 enough to place such bet?”. You can find the answer to this question only when you create your full statistical model and test it.
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Let’s beat the bookie with VALUE BETTING
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